ࡱ>  @ 1bjbjFF |,,#  ]]]8(^$L`pKra:>a(fafafaC͈4_JaJaJaJaJaJaJ$MR4PfJO>COOJ fafa$*KO fafa_JO_JF*/2fa` p2Ny]+\-tJL@K0pK. PPP/2 /2 PO3ۚ $ JJ$L9$0L9 SEPTEMBER 2007 directorate general international and european relations eu institutions and fora division The EUs attempt to create a common ENERGY POLICy b. frankal, m. freier* - eif: european issues - * The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions to this note made by Julia Blsius, Martina Jttner and Pietro de Matteis, as well as comments from Hedwig Ongena and Theo Martens. Executive Summary 2007 is a milestone year in the ongoing attempt to create a common European energy policy. The Commission, with the support of several Member States and the European Parliament, has proposed unbundling Europes bigger energy companies by including the sector in the Internal Market. The intention is to open up access to national gas and electricity markets through the creation of a pan-European level playing field. If successful, this will have significant, and positive, economic effects. However, with several Member States, most notably France and Germany, strongly opposed, a compromise solution, involving the separation of infrastructures management, but not ownership, is an equally-likely outcome. Another, separate, strand of EU energy policy is sustainability. This is based on a growing economic consensus that, with current trends, climate change is likely to reduce GDP, including in the euro area, by at least 5% a year, compared to expectations. In March 2007, the European Council agreed to an unprecedented set of legally-binding policies, including reducing the EUs greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use. However, difficult political issues, such as how much each Member State will reduce its emissions, have yet to be addressed. One policy measure is the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). However, the first phase of the scheme (2005-7) was a failure and it is not clear whether the minor changes that will be made in the second phase (200812) will result in any emissions reduction. Energy policy is increasingly discussed not only in EU institutions and fora, such as the Ecofin Council, EFC and EPC, but also internationally, e.g. at the IMF, World Bank, G7/G8 and G20. The EU cannot meet its energy policy goals without international co-operation. Also, Europes reliance on third countries for its fossil fuel needs, some of which cannot be regarded as stable trading partners, is an important driver of the EUs energy policy. Contents Introduction ... 3 Box 1: Who decides the EUs energy policy ? 4 Section 1: The attempt to create an internal Market for energy .... 5 Section 2: European policy on mitigating the effects of climate change . 11 Box 2: The EUs Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) .. 13 Section 3: International aspects of European energy policies ... 18 Conclusion: . 22 Annex: European energy policy timeline 23 Introduction Energy has been a significant source of EU activity for a long time, and in particular since the Kyoto agreement in 1997. Energy is also one of the four headline priorities of the Lisbon strategy. The renewed drive to complete the Single Market, the dramatic rise of the climate change issue up the political agenda and increasing worries about Europes energy security, prompted by geopolitical tensions, lead the European Council to agree in 2006 to a common Energy Policy for Europe. The Commission presented a large package of proposals, entitled Energy Policy for a Changing World, to the European Council in March 2007. There, the Heads of State or Government agreed to the effective separation of production and distribution activities of gas and electricity companies and to legally-binding measures to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Fleshing out and implementing the EUs emerging energy policy is now being discussed in a wide variety of EU fora, including the European Parliament, the Ecofin Council, the EFC and the EPC, which has a Working Group on Energy and Climate Change, in which the ECB participates. The coming months will be a period of intense policy development that will set the parameters for the common energy policy for a decade. On 19 September 2007, the Commission will publish a package of draft directives, which are designed to radically change the European energy landscape by bringing Internal Market rules to Europes gas and electricity markets. This will lead to an important and controversial debate, involving the Council, the Parliament and, in December 2007, the European Council, which will provide high-level guidance. As for the European Councils agreement to drastically reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions by 2020, implementing these measures will be difficult and controversial, not least in agreeing on burden-sharing arrangements. Implementation would profoundly change Europes economy. Energy policy has repeatedly been held up by EU leaders as a touchstone issue to show that the EU is capable of effective policy delivery. Pisani-Ferry calls it a key litmus test of the usefulness of the EU in the 21st century . Against this background, this paper provides an overview and analysis of the EUs rapidly-developing energy policies. Box 1: The EUs decision-makers on energy policy Subject to the political guidance of the European Council, energy policy is principally the responsibility of the Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council formation (TTE). Similar to the EFC, TTE also has a specialist sub-Committee, the Working Party on Energy. This committee meets weekly and is composed of two representatives from each Member State (one expert from the energy Ministry and one from Coreper) and two from the Commission. Other formations too, such as the Competitiveness and Environment Councils play a role. The Competitiveness Council is involved as environmental, energy and industrial policies require an integrated approach in order to realise the EUs goals, including in the area of climate change. As for the Environment Council, it manages EU climate change policy, e.g. developing innovative financing mechanisms to increase the EUs energy efficiency. It ensures that these policies are consistent with the EUs overall energy strategy. In late 2005, a High-Level Working Group on Energy was set up, which consists of four national Ministers (of economics, trade and industry) and the Commissioners for Enterprise and Industry, Competition, Energy and the Environment, as well as Members of the European Parliament and representatives of industry, environmental NGOs, consumers, trade unions and national regulators. It meets three times a year and advises the Council, in particular, on energy markets, ETS, energy-efficiency and renewables. The High-Level Group also has a technical-level sherpas sub-group. Energy efficiency has been an Ecofin policy goal since its meeting in Manchester of 2005. In 2006, and particularly after the publication of the Stern Review on climate change and its economic consequences in October 2006, energy became a significant topic of discussion, and now features regularly on the agenda. Further to the European Councils energy strategy, Ecofin supports the creation of an effective single energy market through focusing on macroeconomic impact, potential budgetary costs and the cost-effectiveness of EU energy policy measures. In particular, it has an important role in examining the use of taxation to increase energy efficiency and in increasing research subsidies. Energy policy issues, including the future design of ETS (in particular the use of auctioning to allocate allowances) has also been discussed in the Ecofin preparatory committees. In April 2007, the EPC noted that climate change will clearly have an impact on growth and the economic policy decisions by the European Council of March 2007 concerning climate protection, renewable energies and energy efficiency should be part and parcel of the Lisbon Strategy. In response, it set up a Working Group on Energy and Climate Change, in which the ECB participates. This working group is considering the use of energy taxes and the review of the ETS, and will feed its conclusions into the March 2008 European Council meeting. In these discussions, the ECB took a position of support for the proper functioning of energy markets. The ECB has consistently supported the use of market-based instruments to achieve the EUs policy goals and supported the proposition that energy prices should reflect the size of GHG emissions. ECB research papers have also addressed the issue. Section 1: The attempt to create an Internal Market for Energy 1. European energy markets today The two main network industries in the energy sector, gas and electricity, can still correctly be characterised as predominantly national in scope, with wide variations in the degree of state control. Within many Member States, there is a high level of market concentration in these sectors: the Commission characterises the French electricity market as monopolistic, Spains as a duopoly and Germanys an oligopoly. Moreover, there is a slow but steady trend towards further consolidation: in 1999 Europes five largest utility companies accounted for 57% of electricity sales; in 2005 this was almost 70%. The way Europe generates its electricity still varies widely between Member States, as illustrated in Figure 1, which shows that France generates more than three-quarters of its electricity from nuclear power, whilst Italy generates none. As regards gas, the situation, which is illustrated in Figure 2, is similar: in only one major EU country (UK) do incumbent companies not supply more than 50% of the market. Many incumbent companies are often former state monopolies, such as EdF and Gaz de France, Germanys E.ON and RWE, Italys Eni and Austrias OMV. They remain vertically-integrated structures which both supply energy to end-users and also own and manage national infrastructures. Suez and Gaz de Frances merger will reinforce this tendency.   2. Dominant incumbents are the biggest barrier to an Internal Market for Energy This situation has blocked the creation of a pan-European market, because long-term investment decisions on national infrastructures (e.g. on gas pipelines and storage facilities or electricity generation and grids) tend to be made on the basis of the perceived needs of a national market, and often involve national governments. Few structural incentives exist to orientate these investment decisions towards creating efficient, open and competitive cross-border networks or towards improving access for potential cross-border competitors. The lack of regulation at the European level, and weak regulation at the national level, also play a role: cross-border transit pipelines and electricity interconnectors are not subject to any third party access rules, causing cross-border bottlenecks. The insufficient interconnectivity that exists also derives from capacity expansions which have been tailored in the past to the requirements of national incumbents distribution to end-users businesses. Long duration contracts and tacit renewal clauses further hamper competition, as does cross-subsidisation and opaque and discriminatory public service obligations imposed by several Member states. 3. European policy to create an Internal Market for Energy On the basis of its general and open-ended task of establishing a common market, the EU has already adopted two legislative packages (in 1996-8 and 2003-4), intended to open up domestic gas and electricity markets to competition. These required market opening for business users by July 2004 and for households by July 2007. However, most Member States have still to properly transpose the 2003-4 Directives and are under the threat of infringement proceedings by the Commission. As importantly, even where the Directives have been transposed, practice has shown that the regulatory framework has, in many countries, not provided a level playing field of open access to crucial infrastructures, and has not brought in new competition. A new attempt to create a pan-European level playing field, by removing ownership of crucial infrastructures from incumbent companies, is the basis of the Commissions new legislative proposals, published on 19 September 2007. 4. The unbundling of production and distribution Because of the low price elasticity of demand and high-entry costs, the production (including import) of gas and electricity has inherent monopoly characteristics. Large-scale infrastructures, such as transmission networks and pipelines, would be extremely expensive and economically inefficient to duplicate (e.g. by installing a competing electricity transmission system). However, this is not the case for gas and electricity distribution to consumers. In theory, given a level-playing field and open access to infrastructures, any number of companies could provide gas or electricity to end-users. The Commissions proposal is to unbundle these two interests so that they can no longer be within a single company. The economic basis for this is that the current prevalence of vertical structures cannot result in a level-playing field and open access conditions. Effective competition, which the economic evidence strongly links to significant price falls, is seen as requiring the separation of production interests from distribution interests. The September 2007 package would separate production and distribution, as well as enhancing transparency, interconnection and cross-border competition. The differences in the gas and electricity markets are summarised in Figure 3.  5. The Commissions option 2: ISO The September 2007 package has two options, which were also put to the European Council in March 2007. There was no consensus at that meeting for unbundling. The agreement was instead for the Commissions second best option of the effective separation of production and distribution activities. This would mean that national infrastructures could still be owned by incumbents, but would be managed independently (by Independent System Operators, ISOs). This would be a trustee-type company, which would operate the network for and on behalf of its owner. ISOs would be subject to regulation by independent national regulators, which would work within a pan-European framework to co-operate and take decisions on cross-border issues. 6. The Commissions option 1: full unbundling However, the Commission has continued to argue strongly for its favoured option, of full unbundling. This would see the legal separation of the ownership of national infrastructures and not just their management. One specific German objection to unbundling is that the unjustified expropriation of property (by forcing companies to sell their assets) is against the German Constitution. To deal with this, the Commission developed its proposals on the basis of share splitting. This means making two companies from one, i.e. splitting incumbents production and distribution activities into two separate companies. Shares in these two new companies would be given to the owners of the old company. Share-splitting would mitigate the negative aspects of forcing companies to sell assets, because shareholders receive shares in two distinct companies, creating value. Over time, the two companies shareholdings can be expected to diverge. 6. Opposition to unbundling and the reasons for it Although the European Parliament, as well as several Member States, support unbundling, others - most notably France and Germany - continue to strongly oppose it. The recent merger of Suez and Gaz de France represents a formidable challenge for the policy, both in micro-terms, i.e. the reinforcement of incumbency in France, and also macro-terms, in that it is symbolic of a wider drive by the new French administration to engineer an activist energy champions policy. Three main arguments are made against unbundling. Firstly, it is argued that creating smaller companies increases exposure to the takeover of vital national assets by third-country companies. This has been taken seriously by the Commission, who have floated a series of measures to deal with this concern, including the use of golden shares or declaring the energy sector a strategic industry, which could give the Commission the right to scrutinise and potentially block third-country investment. It might also insist on reciprocity to any such investment, given that EU countries face sever limits on investment in the energy sectors of countries such as Russia and Saudi-Arabia. The second main argument is that unbundling would not guarantee the investment needed in the EUs energy infrastructures. The third, and most straightforward, is that the direct interests of several national governments are involved, with many large energy companies publicly-owned or close to their national governments, which therefore have a specific stake in their future and consider them national assets. 7. Commission plus Parliament against divided Council may equal unbundling The Commission has received significant support for unbundling from the Parliament, which, through the co-decision procedure, has a fully-equal role to the Council. Both relevant Parliamentary Committees (Internal Market, Energy), which are broadly representative of Parliament as a whole, support unbundling. The Energy Committee concluded in June 2007 that unbundling is the most effective tool to promote investments in infrastructures in a non-discriminatory way, fair access to the [electricity] grid for new entrants and transparency in the market. In a plenary vote in July 2007, this view received majority support. This may mean that, despite the continued opposition of several Member States, a radical unbundling directive is still possible. The political battle resembles that of the Services Directive. This was virtually rewritten by Parliament, and (with the Commissions support) proved politically unchallengeable by a divided Council. The crucial difference here is that whereas in the case of the Services Directive, Parliament tended towards weakening the competitive pressures the legislation would introduce, in this case Parliament is for strengthening them. 8. The Commissions use of competition policy to support unbundling In 2006, DG-Competition launched an inquiry into the energy sector, culminating in a series of dawn raids on companies including E.ON, RWE, EdF and ENI. Evidence was found that the Commission alleges shows the exclusion of rivals from markets and infrastructures and collusion in the form of market sharing. The Commission has a large toolbox of powers to remedy infringements of competition law, and has indicated it is willing to use them. In January 2007, it moved to the next stage, which was the publication of a competition inquiry into the whole energy sector. This concluded it is essential to resolve the systematic conflict of interest inherent in the vertical integration of supply and network activities. The Commission can fine companies up to 10% of global annual turnover. It can also go to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) to seek remedies, including the forced break-up of vertically-integrated dominant suppliers. More subtly, by using its competition powers, the Commission is trying to establish obligations on dominant companies. In May 2007, it initiated anti-trust proceedings against ENI and RWE over alleged attempts to illegally protect national markets against competition. In July 2007, the Commission launched similar proceedings against E.ON and Gaz de France and against EDF and Electrabel (in which Suez is a major shareholder). It remains to be seen whether the ECJ will agree with the Commissions view that vertically-integrated companies have a positive obligation to invest in upgrading infrastructure where necessary to enable competitors to enter the market, even if it is against their own interests. The Commission also developed a use-it-or-lose-it principle regarding unused network capacity. Finally, the Commissions action is a strong comment on national energy regulators, as the Italian Regulator is one of the most respected and active in the EU, but still did not prevent ENIs alleged abuses. 9. Other complementary measures Other supporting measures are also being taken. The Commission has been pro-active in resisting instances of so-called economic nationalism in this area, most notably in successfully opposing the Spanish governments attempts in 2006 to block a bid by E.ON for the Spanish firm Endesa. While E.ONs bid eventually failed, the Spanish governments blocking measures were ruled illegal and Endesa was taken over by a non-Spanish firm. Also, in July 2007, Competition Commissioner Kroes announced an agreement with Algeria ending, even in existing contracts, the use of so-called destination clauses which prevent European gas purchasers in one Member State from supplying gas in another. Further, the Commissions September 2007 package will contain a proposal to set up a co-ordination group of national energy regulators and will recommend that in many cases their (national) powers should be strengthened. Operating like CESR (the Committee of Securities Regulators), this group would be mandated to ensure convergence of technical standards and of their own powers. They would also be the main focus of efforts to increase cross-border sales and interconnections. Section 2: European policy on mitigating the effects of climate change 10. How climate change and European policy affect the euro area economy There is a widespread consensus that climate change is occurring, that its negative effects are becoming increasingly evident, and that in the medium term there is a small but significant risk that its effects will be extremely damaging economically for the euro area. This has lead to the rapidly-increasing development of a whole new area of European policy measures designed to mitigate the effects of climate change. The effects on the euro area economy could be studied under two separate headings. The first heading is what effects the current generation of mitigation policies, such as the EUs Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), are likely to have on the euro area economy. The second heading is whether these mitigation policies are likely to succeed and, if not, what effects is climate change likely to have on the euro area economy ? 11. Why there is European policy to mitigate the effects of climate change The economics of climate change is a rapidly-growing branch of economics, with the Stern Review of October 2006 a landmark publication. Although measures such as temperature rise are also important, Stern used the basic measure of parts per million of CO2 (ppm) in the atmosphere. Before the industrial revolution, this was 280ppm. Today, it is 430ppm, the highest in half a million years. At the current rate of increase, it will be 800ppm by 2100. Using the best available scientific data, Stern focused on the policies necessary to stabilise levels at 450550ppm and the economic consequences of implementing those policies. His modelling framework is built around the economics of risk. This deconstructs averages to reveal that the risks of outcomes much worse than expected are real and they can be catastrophic. Sterns conclusions include: (i) economic models show that the overall costs of climate change will be equivalent to losing 520% of global GDP a year (compared to expectations); (ii) whilst emissions growth has previously been driven by GDP growth, changes in energy technology reduce this responsiveness; and (iii) stabilisation at 500-550 ppm (the most realistic option) will cost approximately 1% of global GDP a year, termed significant but manageable. 12. The economic effects of climate change need more study A significant risk exists that current European policy on mitigating the effects of climate change will not succeed in reducing GHG emissions, and/or that there will be a failure to take comparable action at the global level. This would mean a likelihood that over the medium term, climate change would have potentially highly-detrimental effects on the euro area economy. Research into, and consideration of, these effects is increasing. With rising sea levels, a slow but steady withdrawal inland of the 70 million Europeans who live on or near coastal areas could be expected. Costly investments in flood defences will be required. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries can be expected to be severely affected by expected increases in temperatures in the Mediterranean. Tourism patterns will change, e.g. as ski resorts migrate from low-altitude European resorts. Neighbouring regions, notably Central Asia and North Africa are likely to be very severely affected, greatly raising the costs of preventing mass migration to the EU. Climate change, however, also represents opportunities: according to Stern, the markets in low-carbon energy products are likely to be worth at least 400 billion a year by 2050. Those countries and companies that spend now on research and development, that establish global standards and that dominate markets early have a higher chance of seeing exponential growth over the coming decades. This point has been emphasised many times in the context of the Lisbon agenda. 13. The Kyoto Protocol In 1997, over 160 countries signed the UNs Framework Convention on Climate Change, widely known as the Kyoto Protocol. This assigned mandatory limits to the signatory nations on GHG emissions, which needed to be reduced by at least 5% by 2012, compared to the 1990 level. However, there is effectively no sanctions regime. The European Union undertook to reduce its total GHG emissions by 8% and there was then an internal burden-sharing agreement that set specific reduction requirements for the individual Member States, based essentially on each countrys socio-economic situation. 14. European policy on mitigating climate change In order to meet their Kyoto commitments, the EU and its Member States developed, adopted and implemented several policies. Because energy use accounts for almost 60% of all GHG emissions in the EU, these were primarily measures designed to increase energy efficiency. The use of renewable energy sources was targeted in 1997 to be 12% by 2010. The EU also considered a carbon tax. However, in January 2005, it instead set up a so-called cap and trade scheme: the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS, see box). However, this has not reduced emissions. Energy consumption has continued to rise. Figure 5 illustrates that only a few Member States are on course to meet their Kyoto reduction targets, such as the UK, Sweden and France. In fact, on current trends, emissions in the EU-15 are likely to increase by 5% by 2030. The EU is equally unlikely to meet the internal targets on renewable energy it set in 1997 (12%), with current use up to just 6%, as illustrated in Figure 6.  Box 2: The EUs Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) ETS is a cornerstone of the EUs emissions reduction policy. It works through limiting the amount of the EUs five most polluting industries emissions (totalling approximately 40% of carbon emissions) by allocating each participating company a fixed number of allowances. Once companies use up their allowances, they need to buy more, from companies who have spare allowances. In theory, this should incentivise companies to save allowances by lowering their emissions. They buy allowances on the EUs carbon market (the worlds largest), which had a total capitalisation of approximately 15 billion in early 2006. Several niche investment banks and financial products, such as futures contracts, now exist to support the market. However, during  Phase I of ETS, which runs from 2005 to 2008, there were approximately 6% more allowances than the emissions of ETS participants, leading to a collapse in the trading price of allowances from a peak of 33 to just 0.2 per tonne, representing the transaction costs of the permits. Part of the reason for this over-allocation was that by freely allocating allowances to companies based on estimated needs (rather than auctioning them) companies were incentivised to overestimate their requirements and have been successful in playing the system. Also, the market expectation that future free allocations will be based on current emissions is a direct disincentive to cut emissions. The sum effect of Phase I is that there has been no reduction in emissions. In fact, the emissions of the approximately 10,000 heavy industrial plants covered by the scheme rose by 1-1.5% in 2006 (compared to 1990), in comparison to a rise of 0.8% across the EU as a whole. One effect appears to be a wealth transfer from Member States which set lower caps (such as the UK) to those which set higher ones (such as France), because participants in the former need to buy allowances from those in the latter. Part of the reason for the ETSs failure to reduce emissions is that ETS allowances are, to a certain level, interchangeable with so-called Kyoto credits. These are certificates that companies can buy off the market which are generated by UN-certified carbon-reduction schemes in the developing world. However, the credibility of these schemes has been widely attacked and it is difficult to show any reductions in emissions that result from them. On the positive side, ETS is the largest emissions trading scheme in the world and has been used as the blueprint for several other national schemes. It has also been used very effectively to show the EUs commitment to environmental action. Finally, it has put in place an effective (although costly) system for collecting data from Europes worst polluters. 15. Reforming ETS for its second phase (2008 - 12) Phase I of ETS ends at the end of 2007. The precise details for Phase II, which runs from 2008 to 2012, are currently being finalised. Having concluded that Member States were overly-generous with their Phase I allocations, the Commission, the key arbiter in deciding on national caps, has forced the downward revision of almost all Member States national plans. Six (new) Member States are challenging this at the ECJ. The scope of ETS is not being widened, meaning that major GHG emitters, such as chemical factories, coal mines, semi-conductor manufacturers, surface transport, agriculture and the household sector remain unaffected. Economic distortion too will remain, because ETS will still not be linked to other emissions reduction policies, such as the subsidisation of renewable energy power plants. Finally, given the limited time-horizon, there is also unlikely to be any change in ETSs inability to influence long-term capital infrastructure investment decisions (such as making power plants more emissions-efficient), as such investments take a decade to amortise. 16. Auctioning and the use of Kyoto credits in ETS Phase II Two Phase II issues are auctioning and the increased use of Kyoto credits. In Phase I, Member States, at their own discretion, could auction (as opposed to freely allocate) up to 5% of their allowances. In Phase II, this rises to 10%. However, in practice, Member States have chosen not to auction and only some 1.5% will be distributed in this way. The remaining 98.5% of allowances will be freely allocated in what can be characterised as a permitted subsidy (as allowances are valuable assets). Several studies have highlighted that this subsidy is going to the EUs worst polluters, and in particular to coal-fired power stations. An important innovation in Phase II is that each Member State has a quota of Kyoto credits that can be used interchangeably with ETS allowances. In 2006, according to the World Bank, the scarcity of permits in ETS was 1.2b tonnes of CO2 (bt); the availability of Kyoto credits was 1.3bt. The limits for the use of Kyoto credits has greatly increased in Phase II and so the use of these credits is likely to rise dramatically. Germany, for example, agreed to a reduction in its Phase II emissions cap of 28.9mt. However, at the same time it received an increase in its Kyoto credit import quota of 32.8mt. Estimates based on Member States Phase II agreements are that while there will be a scarcity within the EU of some 3.5bt for Phase II, there will be some 5.75bt of Kyoto credits allowed. Also, different national quotas, together with different levels of stringency in national caps, mean that, as in Phase I, there will not be a single EU price for carbon. 17. The future of ETS from 2012 How - and whether - ETS will continue after 2012 is an open question. The main determinant will be the international post-Kyoto settlement. It is possible that ETS, possibly linked to other, national, schemes may be expanded, e.g. as other sectors of the euro areas economy are brought within its scope. One indicator of this is that in June 2007 the Council agreed to include aviation: for flights within the EU from 2011, and all flights to and from the EU after 2012. Ultimately, ETSs impact on the economy will depend on the degree to which political will exists to make it function (i.e. to make it reduce EU emissions) more effectively. How to achieve that is relatively consensual amongst experts: emissions limits should be set at a level that ensures scarcity in the market; allowances should be auctioned, not given away, should be sectoral, not national, and should not be interchangeable with Kyoto credits; there should be better and more transparent price information; the introduction of banking services (e.g. allowing participants to borrow allowances as they today borrow securities); and the schemes scope should be widened to more sectors, including all transport. However, despite plans (e.g. in the UK) for wider next generation schemes, the political salience of the climate change issue for the EU and the international and domestic pressures for effective action, the prospects for an effective ETS after 2012 remain low. 18. Other expected legislative activity from 2007 onwards In March 2007, the European Council agreed: (i) to reduce total energy consumption by 20% by 2020 (compared to 1990); (ii) to increase the use of renewable energies to 20% of overall EU energy consumption by 2020; and (iii) on a binding reduction of 20% in GHG emissions by 2020. This will be implemented through a high-profile series of EU actions, the centrepiece of which will be a directive setting out the burden-sharing mechanism. This will be proposed by the Commission in early December 2007 and will then be discussed by the Council, the European Council and the Parliament. Many other measures, including the use of legal instruments at both national and EU-level, are already being worked on, including ways to promote fuel efficient cars, better use of public transport and the increased use of biofuels (another target is that these should comprise 10% of transport fuel by 2020). Other policies include better labelling and tax-incentives for energy companies to make long-term investments in solar, hydro, wind and geothermal power and possibly enforcing more energy-efficiency standards for household appliances through tax incentives. A directive on renewable energy use will be published before the end of 2007. Carbon sequestration (which buries or nullifies carbon rather than emitting it) is a logical priority for areas rich in coal. The Commission is seeking to raise and harmonise the price of diesel, a particularly polluting fuel subsidised by many Member States. Another new directive is planned to make energy-efficient light bulbs mandatory in all streetlamps by 2008 and all households by 2009.  19. Burden sharing Whilst the European Council agreed to make a binding commitment to reduce GHGs by 20% by 2020, it did not agree how. The main question is one of burden-sharing, i.e. how much each Member State must cut. This will be dealt with in Commission proposals for a burden-sharing directive in December 2007. However, many Member States have already been making the case for special concessions. One problem is that the base-line for calculations (as per Kyoto) is 1990, which new Member State emerging economies argue is unfair, as a massive growth spurt to catch up to Western Europe has taken place since then. There is also disagreement on how to class nuclear power, which some Member States rely on and wish to develop to meet their commitments, but which others fiercely oppose. Final decisions on the details of burden-sharing are likely to be taken by the European Council in March 2008. Section 3: Energy: international relations aspects 20. The involvement of the G7, G20, World Bank and IMF The discussions currently taking place at the G7, G20 and at the IMF are similar to those at the European fora in which the ECB participates. In December 2006, the IMF prepared a paper on promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies, which tried to summarise the lessons of the use of fiscal policy tools by the worlds major economies towards these goals. The IMFs conclusions included that: (i) fiscal regimes in this context have been assembled piecemeal, are generally archaic and should be restructured to clearly identify the separate corrective and revenue goals; (ii) the economic case for coherent carbon taxation is powerful and increasingly inescapable; (iii) fuel, and in particular diesel, is in many cases under-taxed and its different elements should be better identified, e.g. using congestion charging; and (iv) the blanket tax exemption for international aviation and maritime fuel should be ended, however this can only be done through international cooperation. Concerns about climate change were also headlined in the IMFs World Economic Outlook of April 2007. The World Bank too is active, e.g. through the Clean Energy Investment Framework and Carbon Finance Facility. Energy policy was discussed at the G7 Finance Ministers meeting in February 2007, in which the ECB President participated, and at the alternates meeting beforehand. In April 2007, the G20 set up a study group on climate change (in which the ECB also participates). This focuses on the economic impact of climate change and the relationship with other key economic goals and policy approaches, including market-based mechanisms. The groups work will be considered by the G20 Deputies in September 2007 and by the Ministerial in November 2007. 21. Global emissions reduction policy (or lack of) In March 2007, the European Council agreed on the strategic objective of limiting global average temperature increases to 2 Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. However, this cannot be achieved without both the entire developed world and also the emerging economies: by around 2015 China is expected to be the worlds largest GHG emitter. The European Council also agreed that, if there was global reciprocity, it would increase its binding commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 2020 from 20% to 30%, and to 60-80% by 2050. Of the possibilities for achieving emissions reduction at a global level, national targets are widely seen as the only option with a realistic possibility of being effective. The alternative, of creating a global carbon market, with a single price for carbon, is generally viewed (particularly with the experience of ETS) as unlikely to be effective. This was the main topic of discussion at the G8 summit in Germany in June 2007, where G8 President Angela Merkel said that, we are not going to get around the need for quantifiable reduction goals. The G8, with the exception of Russia and America, agreed there to at least halve global CO2 emissions by 2050. However, verification, enforceability and burden sharing remain political problems, particularly given the refusal of the worlds largest GHG emitter (the US) to participate. An effective global framework has not yet been found to overcome the free-rider problem, namely that the harm of emissions is spread across the globe, whilst the costs of their reduction must be borne by the emitter. Part of the reason for American reluctance is that the rapidly-developing emerging economies (who have historically contributed much less to the problem and still do today) have so far not been required to reduce their emissions. The G8 Presidency tentatively suggested a future scheme in which developing countries emissions (including India and China) could continue rising until they reached G7 levels. Meanwhile, the G8 Presidency, together with Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa agreed on the need for a new global agreement by 2009 under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). The next milestone in the formulation of a post-Kyoto framework is a UNFCC meeting in Indonesia in December 2007. 22. The countries the EU is dependent on for its energy needs Energy policy is also a major and increasing factor in the EUs relationship with its immediate neighbours. This is inevitable given that the EU is the worlds largest energy importer, with over half its energy consumption deriving from imported material (compared to 30% for the US). This is forecast to rise to 65% by 2030. The share of imported gas is predicted to increase from 63% to 84% and of imported oil from 82% to 93% (by 2030). Main suppliers include Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Kazakhstan (see Figures 10 and 11). Energy has become a central element in the EUs developing Neighbourhood Policy (ENP).  23. Russia Russia, which controls the worlds largest reserves of natural gas, is the EUs most important energy supplier (see Figure 12). The gas industry is dominated by the state-controlled Gazprom. Most of Russias oil industry is also now state-controlled, and hostility towards foreign investors, together with legal uncertainties, discourages investment in an ageing infrastructure. Oil output growth in Russia has sharply declined in recent years, despite record-high oil prices. Its gas production too is flat. Energy has become the most important element in bilateral EU-Russia relations, eclipsing other aspects of what was a comprehensive relationship based on the Partnership and Co-operation Agreement of 1997. In 2000 an EU-Russia energy dialogue was launched. However, the mechanisms that this created are low-level and ineffective, and the EUs key objective of the process, getting Russia to ratify the Energy Charter Treaty (which would introduce more transparency and increase the possibilities for foreign investment), has not been achieved.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://www.economist.com/images/20070414/CEU957.gif" \* MERGEFORMAT  24. The EUs external energy policy (or lack of) There is, as such, no common European external energy policy. As is the case with many aspects of EU external relations, energy supply is viewed, in particular by the bigger Member States, as a matter of vital national interest, meaning that each conducts its own external relations. Commission proposals for a single voice for Europe have not changed this situation. The EUs main aim in external energy policy would be to ensure a reliable supply of oil and gas at a reasonable, or at least predictable, price. The insecurity of the current arrangements has been highlighted in recent years by several incidents with Russia, such as the January 2006 Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute and the January 2007 Russian-Belarusian (Druzhba or Friendship pipeline) dispute, which caused energy shortages in Europe. In July and August 2007, Lukoil unilaterally reduced its supply to Germany by one-third. Long-term, Europe is increasingly competing for energy supplies with emerging economies in Asia including India and China. For future diversification, Europe is looking to Central Asia, and in particular Kazakhstan, and also to the Middle East. Improving EU relations with these countries has become the main element of EU policy in this area and both the Commission and the Council (through High Representative Solana and several Special Representatives) have become increasingly active there over the last 18 months. Conclusion Energy will be a hot topic in EU policymaking fora in the coming months, in particular because of the Commissions sustained attempt to bring pan-European Internal Market rules to (national) gas and electricity markets. The principle methodology for this is changing the vertically-integrated nature of key incumbent companies. The Commission has strong support from a substantial minority in the Council and from the European Parliament. However, strong objections from several Member States mean that full unbundling taking away the actual ownership of infrastructural assets from these companies - is unlikely to prevail. However, there is a strong possibility that the compromise that will emerge will be robust and will result in the effective separation and management of production (infrastructures) and distribution (supply to end-users) interests. The outline should be clear by Spring 2008. As regards the targets set by the European Council for GHG emissions reduction, for energy efficiency and for radically changing the EUs energy mix, these involve very significant structural changes to many aspects of the economy, and difficult political compromises in terms of burden sharing. Despite the positive publicity the EU has gathered in this area, it is unlikely that there will be sufficient political will to actually implement the deep changes necessary to meet these targets, particularly given the target date of 2020. However, a legislative package the Commission will propose in December 2007 will further the debate. Both of these policies are intimately linked to energy security issues, and events in unstable countries or regions (or a major climate change event) could alter this outlook. Most foreign relations aspects of energy policy, remain largely with the Member States, rather than the EU. However, a single European voice would increase Europes weight as a negotiating bloc with its supplier countries. It would also help the EU with its gargantuan task of convincing the rest of the world to follow its lead: an absolute necessity to achieve emissions reductions. In summary, the EU does not have one energy policy, so much as several policies, with different and even contradictory aims, that for various reasons are put together under the headline banner of a common energy policy. Trade-offs between competitiveness, sustainability and security of supply are real, e.g. increasing competition among national companies may reduce their weight in international negotiations, undermining energy security. Similarly, moving away from imported oil and gas to improve energy security, may, in the short-term, involve a shift towards domestic coal, producing higher GHG emissions. What can clearly be observed, however, is that the need to deal with these issues at EU rather than national level is becoming an accepted paradigm. Annex European energy policy timeline May 1992 United Nations adopts the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ( HYPERLINK "http://www.unfccc.int/" \t "_blank" UNFCCC) 1996 and 1998 First EU electricity and gas market directives adopted December 1997 Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol with its binding targets to reducegreenhouse gas emissions June 2000 Launch of European Climate Change Programme October 2000 Bilateral Energy Dialogue with Russia launched at EU-Russia Summit in Paris June 2003 SecondEU gas and electricity market directives adopted July 2004 Deadline for opening up to competition in electricity and gas markets for non-households January 2005 EU'sgreenhouse gas Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) introduced February 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force March 2005 Commission takesBelgium, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg and Spain to the ECJ for failing totranspose the electricity directive October 2005 Launch of second European Climate Change Programme 17 July 2006 G8 adoptsjoint statement on global energy security October 2006 Commissionpresentsenergy-efficiency action plan November 2006 Commission sets out agenda for ETS review 23 November 2006 EU energy ministerssupport energy efficiency action plan December 2006 Commission makeslegislative proposals to include aviation in ETS 10 January 2007 European Commission presents its energy and climate change package 7February2007 Commissionproposes strategy to cut CO2 emissions from cars 8-9 March 2007 European Council agrees to series of legally-binding targets for GHG emissions reduction by 2020 and to separation of gas and electricity production infrastructures and supply 6-8 June 2007 EU Energy Council agrees to include aviation in ETS 6-8 June 2007 G8 Summit in Heiligendamm adoptsaction planon climate change, clean energy and sustainable development 30 June 2007 EU Member States submit national energy efficiency action plans to the Commission as part of the directive on HYPERLINK "http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/energy-use-efficiency-energy-services/article-133534" \o "energy end-use efficiency and energy services" energy end-use efficiency and energy services 1 July 2007 Deadline for opening up to competition in electricity and gas markets for households 19 September2007 Commission presents its third liberalisation package on gas and electricity markets, including a new proposal on full unbundling 7 December 2007 Commission to present draft directive on burden-sharing in respect of the emissions reduction/energy efficiency targets agreed by the European Council in March 2007 December 2007 Commission to present legislative proposals for framework directive on renewable energies, Strategic Energy Technology Plan and review of ETS 3-14 December 2007 United Nations annual conference on climate change in Bali, Indonesia 1 January 2008 Start of Phase II of ETS March 2008 European Council Spring meeting, with energy policy as main issue 31 December 2012 Kyoto Protocol expires   As set out by the European Council in Spring 2006, the others being employment, knowledge and innovation and business potential.  Jean Pisani-Ferry, 26 February 2007, Why energy is key for Europes Future, Financial Times Deutschland.  Unless otherwise mentioned, references to the Commission as a source refer to elements of the package An Energy Policy for a Changing World published on 10 January 2007 and presented to the Spring European Council in March 2007.  Dow Jones Energy Weekly, February 9, 2007, p6.  By the 2004 deadline, only six Member States had implemented the legislation and still today many countries have not properly transposed it. However, there has been a steady increase in markets that are open to competition, at least legally: by April 2005, 56% of the unweighted EU25 electricity markets was open, with 63% for gas. By the 2007 deadline, Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the UK had liberalised both their markets; Finland and Sweden their electricity market; and Italy its gas market.  Martin, Roma and Vansteenkiste, April 2005, Regulatory Reforms in Selected EU Network Industries, ECB Occasional Paper 28. This also concludes that the vertical integration of national markets is detrimental to the creation of pan-European cross-border networks and to competitive markets.  Roller, Delgado and Friederiszick, May 2007, Energy Choices for Europe.  Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden and the UK have been consistent supporters.  A letter by French Minister Borloo to the European Commission of July 2007, also signed by Germany, Austria, Greece, Luxembourg and Slovakia, argued that the assumption that only complete ownership unbundling can lead to further development of the internal market in electricity and gas must be rebutted.  Although the resolution also pointed out that the model might not address all of the issues at stake such as interconnections or congestion points.  The essential reason for the difference in the Parliaments position is that the Services Directive would have affected hundreds of thousands of small businesses, whereas the unbundling directive will affect relatively few large power companies.  This can be seen in a wider context of the Commission using enhanced (since 2004) competition powers. In both January and February 2007 it imposed new record fines, of 750mn and 992mn respectively.  The Commission charged ENI with  capacity hoarding and strategic underinvestment& leading to the foreclosure of competitors and harm for competition and customers in one or more supply markets in Italy. RWE may have abused its dominant position by raising rivals costs and preventing (new) entrants from getting access to capacity, placing unjustified obstacles to third party access protecting RWEs dominant natural gas supply business to the detriment of consumers.  Actually, what is referred to in this paper, and generally, as CO2 is more precisely CO2e, which is a broader basket of greenhouse gases (GHG), the e meaning equivalent.  As set out in the April 2007 report of the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  Council Conclusions, 16 June 1998 (made only by EU-15).  A further 21% comes from transport, 9% from non-energy related agriculture, 8% from non-energy related industrial processes and 3% from waste (Commission). Energy use is responsible for 93% of CO2 emissions.  Namely the energy sector, iron and steel production, and processing, the mineral industry and the paper and card industry.  Approximately 90% of companies in the scheme emitted less carbon than the allowances they were initially given. Also, many companies have been shown to have simply passed on any extra costs (i.e. of buying allowances in the market) to consumers, in effect providing a windfall profit of the value of the allowances allocated freely to them. For example, Commission figures suggest this translated into a windfall profit of approximately 8bn for the biggest four Germany power producers.  The UK House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, in the Second Report, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme: Lessons for the Future, March 2007, concluded there was compelling evidence that the schemes should be subject to serious doubt. Kyoto credits are awarded not for emissions reduction but for the avoidance of business as usual higher emissions. Credits can also be awarded for additionality, i.e. for projects already planned, such as Chinas Xiaogushan dam, which received $30m of credits, even though it was almost completed, with Asian Development Bank financing. Critics also point to the incentive to create pollution, to receive funding to avoid it. This effect seems to have taken place in respect of so-called exotic GHGs, which have received almost half of all Kyoto credits (and on which China imposes a 65% tax). See, Europes Dirty Secret: Why the EU Emissions Trading Scheme Isnt Working, September 2007, Open Europe Report.  Namely: Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The Commission cut back Polands proposal by 26.7% and the Czech Republics by 14.8%. Cypruss plan was cut by 23%, but accepted it, as did Germany, whose plan was cut by 6.6%.  K. Neuhoff et al, 2006, Implications of announced phase II national allocation plans for the EUs ETS, Climate Policy 6, and Carbon Trust, EU ETS Phase II Allocation: Implications and Lessons, May 2007, which highlights that in Germany the allocation rules are such that the most polluting power plants (lignite) receive an additional 10% of allowances.  Further to the Linking Directive, which was adopted rapidly before the 2004 European elections (Directive 2004/101 on establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community, in respect of the Kyoto Protocol's project mechanisms).  C. Jepma, in April 2007, University of Amsterdam, Joint implementation Quarterly.  By way of elaboration, on the futures market, the difference between the price of ETS allowances for today and for 2009 is less than the price of inflation. Hence, since firms receive permits a year in advance, they might be expected to sell them and sign a futures contract, at a guaranteed cost only marginally higher. This does not take place as companies typically view ETS as a regulatory burden, rather than as an opportunity to make profits on a liquid market, with staff usually environmental or regulatory experts.  Which still receives approximately 60m a year in public subsidies, mainly in Spain and Germany. Poland is most reliant on coal, which it uses to generate more than 90% of its electricity. A further nine Member States use it to generate more than a third.  In October 2007, a large EU import tax on Chinese energy-saving light bulbs (adding 66% to the retail price) was due to expire. However, on 30 August 2007 it was extended for a further year.  Fiscal policies to promote energy efficiency and renewable energies in the G7, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department, December 2006.  All Member States except Denmark are dependent on energy imports.  ENP offers privileged partnership and both regional and tailor-made plans to those countries in the EUs geographical proximity but without any (immediate) prospects of EU membership, namely Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia and Ukraine.  The North European Gas Pipeline (Nord Stream) in the Baltic Sea is a highly-controversial joint Russian-German project pipeline. Nabucco is a central European project to bring gas from the Black Sea without Russias involvement. However, Hungarys agreement to act as a centre for Russias Blue Stream pipeline (from Russia, through Turkey, to Central Europe) has effectively killed off Nabucco.  The PCA, which was agreed in a different era, states that Russia should align its laws and trading standards to the EUs, allowing for deeper integration and the possibility, in due course, for a free trade area. The PCA was extended to the EUs new members in 2004 and would be automatically extended at the end of 2007, unless one side gives notice to terminate. 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The bilateral relationship, is now very different, due in part to Russias growing wealth and diplomatic confidence. Russian GDP growth is currently 7% and it holds approximately $300bn of foreign reserves.  See EU External Relations: A Concise Overview, December 2006.  This was highlighted by the recent China-Africa conference and also by Russian President Putin, who said he would like to see the share of Russian gas and oil sold to Asia increase from 3% today to 30% by 2020. PAGE 22 -  PAGE 1 - Figure 12: How Europe gets its gas Figure 1:How Member States generate their electricity (Economist, IEA) Figure 9: Emissions per capita, 2004 (IMF, WEO 2007) Figures 10, 11: Origins of EU gas (right) and oil (below), 2004 The overall costs of climate change will be equivalent to losing 520% of global GDP a year The Stern Review, October 2006 Global warming may be the worlds largest collective action problem The challenges for economic policy that this poses are substantial. 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